NPT

There is a great deal of misunderstanding of what the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty is all about. And because of that there is a lot of misunderstanding as to what compliance actually means and what are the implications of non-compliance. The most common misunderstanding is with regard to actual weapons. Many people seem to believe that the NPT simply prohibits the possession of nuclear weapons and that therefore there is no violation unless actual weapons are discovered. The NPT is much more nuanced and sophisticated than that. In fact, possession of weapons would not just be a violation (in fact, technically it is not if you read the actual NPT text) but an utter and complete failure of the core philosophy of the NPT as a means to prevent the possession of weapons in the first place. The second misunderstanding is that the NPT is a mechanism to uncover weapons. It is not. The purpose of the NPT is not a "police force" to uncover weapons after the fact but it is a treaty requiring compulsory compliance and cooperation. The violation is not in the possession of nuclear weapons but failure to comply with its proscriptions and obligations. It is the obligation of the signatory to proactively comply with transparency. This is just like it is your obligation as a taxpayer to proactively pay your taxes not for the IRS to have come and get them. However, just like the IRS will come and get them if you don't pay your taxes and you will pay a penalty as a result, similarly, if the IAEA has to uncover clandestine activities, the signatory pays a price of lost trust and therefore being subject to closer scrutiny and suspicion. It is also much like audits, transparency, and financial disclosure requirements in business. These are not instituted to uncover financial shenanigans, although they can, but rather to prevent such shenanigans in the first place.

There are two key core principles to the NPT. The first is that the nuclear fuel cycle and access to fissile material is the linchpin to both energy programs and weapons programs. Without weapons grade fissile material it is not possible to build functioning nuclear weapons. The concept is two-fold. One is that weapons grade fissile material is a high hurdle and a higher hurdle than lower grade reactor grade fissile material and the other that the only conceivable use for weapons grade fissile material is for weapons. Thus by controlling the fuel cycle you control the ability to make weapons. And weapons grade material is a clear and unequivocal indicator of weapons intent.

The other core aspect to the NPT is that there is the implicit understanding of the possible calculus of some nations. That being that some nations could decide that it would be preferable to go to war to prevent an adversary from becoming nuclear armed rather than accept the possibility of annihilation at the hands of a nuclear armed adversary. Thus the intent of the NPT is to allow nations to pursue peaceful nuclear energy in a manner that will transparently preclude the potential of weaponization to eliminate the calculus and pretext for pre-emptive warfare.

The mechanism by which the NPT fulfills both core philosophies is with the Safeguard Protocols. This is, again, a two-fold philosophy. First there is transparency of all nuclear activities. Since the NPT provides for openly peaceful nuclear energy activities, any clandestine activities would necessarily be presumed to be of weaponization intent. Thus clandestine programs are expressly forbidden and the transfer of nuclear technologies, especially of a weaponized nature is also forbidden. The second prong is to control the actual fissile material. By monitoring the progress of all fissile materials from mining, processing, fueling, and disposal under full transparency, you ensure that no material finds it's way into weapons programs. Thus the two prongs are transparency of nuclear technology and programs and the transparency of the actual fissile material.

As a signatory to the NPT and agreeing to comply with and submit to the Safeguard Protocols, what do you get? You get the right to the unfettered pursuit of nuclear energy. You also get the assurance that the suspicions of your adversaries will not be aroused vis a vis nuclear weapons and thus eliminate tensions that could result in a preemptive strike over nuclear weapons suspicions. The distinction should be made that the right to nuclear energy is granted by the NPT and is therefore contingent on compliance with the Security Protocols.

Now what does all of this mean with regard to Iran? Iran has been found to have clandestine nuclear programs and to be in possession of black market weapons documents. Thus they are in violation of the NPT and the Safeguard Protocols by these expressly forbidden activities. As such, the only rational conclusion can be that they had the intent of developing weapons technologies. This directly abrogates the first philosophy that transparency allows for peaceful nuclear energy and precludes weapons and thus by extension the only conclusion is therefore weaponization. This expressly abrogates the trust (but verify) of the NPT and Safeguard Protocols and necessarily casts suspicion on all nuclear activities.

Iran says it has the right to the fuel cycle. Yes, the NPT grants that right. But this is no different than a mortgage on your home grants you the right to occupy that home. However if you fail to fulfill your obligations of making the required payments, you forfeit that right to occupy the home. Iran has failed to fulfill it's obligations to the NPT and therefore forfeits it's right to the fuel cycle.

Taken as pattern of behavior, it is impossible to come away with anything other than an intent to deceive and obstruct on the part of the Iranians. If their goals are truly only peaceful nuclear energy then why do they continue the deceit and obstruction? If they were to simply cooperate transparently they could have the nuclear energy they claim to seek. If their goal is truly peaceful nuclear energy then why do they insist on continuing to act and behave in ways that give cause to the international community to obstruct the achievement of that goal? If their goal is truly for the purposes of energy, then why have they repeatedly declined generous offers that would give them exactly that? And if they are so concerned about energy independence then why do the not first master the technology of oil refining. In spite of possessing vast amounts of crude oil they currently are dependent on others for their refined products used for internal consumption. It seems to quite the case of putting the cart before the house to work for nuclear independence but still be completely dependent on others for oil refining.

It seems that Iran is doing everything they possibly can to prevent the creation of the basis of trust and transparency that is at the core of the NPT. Yet they demand to be entitled to the benefits of the NPT. They refuse to fulfill their obligations under the NPT yet expect to be granted the privileges granted by the NPT. It also seems that they are intent on proving the preemptive strike calculus that the NPT is designed to defuse. Do they fail to understand that compliance with the NPT also helps to shield them from the calculus of the preemptive strike? Do they not understand that by their continued obstruction and intransigence they expose themselves to that calculus? While it is unlikely that a Western nation would strike, it is highly likely that paranoid Israel would not be so reticent to strike.