Are we going to tolerate piracy or are we going to stop it?

How long are we going to allow Somali pirates to operate before we act to put a stop to it? There are many things that can be done but the problem must first be correctly viewed for what it is. One problem is that we tend to view the problem through the lens of terrorism. For example, there is debate about arming ships with weapons and/or armed guards. An argument against this is that it could lead to escalation. This is a valid concern; however, it belies a misunderstand of the principles involved. If these were militants out to make a point at any cost, even sacrificing themselves in the process, then this could certainly be a factor. The thing is that these pirates are not terrorists bent on death,even their own, but rather people out to make a living. They are not interested in making a point but rather interested in making money. Anytime someone is looking to make money, the chosen plan of action is evaluated in terms of a cost/benefit or risk/reward analysis. Currently, that equation for the pirates entails virtually zero cost or risk with a significant benefit and reward. They stand to make millions with very little cost or risk to themselves risk of being killed, captured, or injured, but they stand to make millions with Now, we can't really impact the reward side any differently than already occurs once negotiations begin. However, we can have a significant impact on the cost and risk side of the equation. What we can do is increase the cost and risk to a point where they must reevaluate the choice to engage in piracy. If we were to arm vessels, now the pirates must consider if the reward is worth the reward is still worth the much greater cost and risk that they could be captured or killed. And we must evaluate any increased risks to ourselves compared to the reduction in acts of piracy.

Of course the best means to put a stop to the piracy is for Somalis to get their house in order and develop legitimate alternatives to piracy. However there do not appear to be any credible signs that this is going to happen in the foreseeable future. So we must ask ourselves how long are we going to allow this to continue and what are we going to do about it? If we continue on the current path, this is going to continue to spiral out of control, and perhaps that ship has already sailed. At present, the only way to change the situation is by forcible acts. We have see that patrols and convoys are futile. The problem is that it is simple impossible to impose any security out in the vast seas. The answer lies in the fact that ultimately the pirates must make landfall somewhere. While we cannot have a security presence in any meaningful fashion on the open seas, it is possible to have a meaningful presence where pirates make landfall. Currently there are two or three harbors where pirates operate with virtual impunity. While it is not possible to interdict pirates on the open seas due to the vastness of the territory involved, it is possible to interdict pirates in or near the harbors. An effective interdiction regime would serve to raise the stakes on the cost and risk side of their equation. The problem is that this certainly cannot happen with Somali forces and currently there is no provision in international law for international patrols in Somali waters. However, in the given situation, it is my belief that arrangements could be made with the Somali government. The Somali government has already shown an interest in making unilateral concessions on matters of maritime sovereignty vis a vis acts of piracy. It would certainly be in the interest of the Somali government to obtain international support in subduing the piracy problem and I would think the Somali government would be amenable to making arrangements with international naval forces.

So what might such an undertaking look like? Certainly we don't want any programs that entail any land operations. We already know the futility of that. Any operations must be naval based where the international navies have the tactical upper hand.This probably means that operations would of necessity be conducted at some standoff distance from shore or the harbor in order to be out of reach of their land based support structures. Also of paramount concern would be have minimal and, if at all possible, positive impact impact on the fishing trade. Great effort must be made to protect this or we will only create more problems for ourselves. We must also be prepared to deploy forces to other parts of the coast as there is potential for some degree of "wack-a-mole." The goal is not to apprehend or to stop "gang" activities but rather to make the prospect of piracy prohibitively costly for would be pirates. At some point when piracy has been pacified, the landscape must be reevaluated to determine a course of action that will serve to permanently eliminate the threat of piracy. This will depend on the resulting socio-political landscape.